Iraq's refugee crisis
Here's a spectacular piece of ostrich-like behaviour from the US. An American spokesman in Baghdad says:
We're not seeing internally displaced persons at the rate which causes us alarm
Huh? Is this real?
As I wrote a while back, the Samarra bombing at the end of February sparked a refugee crisis which should be alarming everybody. There's no doubt it is happening, and it is ludicrous for the US to explain it away, like they do, as people moving for "personal reasons"
Quible about the numbers if you like; none of the available figures are totally accurate. The IOM estimate has recently risen to 97,900 from a previous 68,000 68,000, bringing it in line with the 100,000 suggested by the Government of Iraq. But, as the IOM explains, these numbers are more likely to be under- than over-estimates:
Discrepancy between dierent sources of figures are largely due to the fact that population movements are very dicult to track, as the movements are fluid and changing daily and many of those displaced are in hiding and do not want to publicize the fact that they are displaced. Moreover, as the MoDM figures show, the actual number of displaced persons may be much higher than the quoted figures, particularly given the large extended families and gracious hospitality of many Iraqis under the current dicult circumstances.
Why are people moving
The US claim that Iraqis are migrating mainly for 'personal reasons' is belied by the facts. According to the IOM:
the majority is being threatened due to their religious orientation, and threats include direct threats to their lives, abductions, assassinations, and an increase in generalized violence and decrease in security.
Not all of those fleeing have received personal threats - in a context of increasing communal violence, many have simply decided that they will be safer among people of their own religion and ethnicity.
In addition to those fleeing communal violence, a great IDPs were forced from their homes by US military actions. According to a report/A92F031851DBD979C1257176005F400D?OpenDocument&count=10000) from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre,
Military operations have caused the most devastation and displacement in western Iraq, in predominantly Sunni areas, where multinational Iraqi forces say the insurgent strongholds are concentrated. During 2005 and early 2006, multinational and Iraqi forces launched regular military offensives in several cities and towns in Anbar province, including Husbaya, Hit, Rawa, Haditha, Fallujah, Ramadi and Al Qa’im. Most of these cities and towns already hosted displaced populations from previous military operations (IRIN, 24 February 2005; UNAMI, 27 February 2005). During the same period, people were displaced because of military operations launched in other parts of the country including in Tal Afar, Karabala, Samarra, Mosul and Kirkuk as well as in areas of Salah al din, Ninewa, Babil and Diyala (UNAMI, 31 August 2005 and 18 May 2005 and 27 February 2005; IRIN, 28 June 2005 and 31 May 2005; ICSC, 13 May 2005; NCCI, 17 May 2006).
And it's only fair to point out that the 100,000 recent refugees are easily outnumbered by the million who were displaced under Saddam, and have not yet returned to their homes. This number includes Marsh Arabs whose homeland was drained, Kurds forced out of Kirkuk through the 'Arabisation' campaign, and many thousands displaced by the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
The majority of these people are moving in with friends or relatives elsewhere in Iraq, with less than 3% living in refugee camps. This has reduced the demands made on aid bodies, but has also made the problem less visible: fields full of emergency tents would at least alert the world to the existence of the problem. But, even when IDPs are able to live with relatives, they will still have trouble finding employment, and will be at a disadvantage in their access to food, water, and other amenities.
I've not yet seen any brilliant suggestions of what we can do to solve this problem, beyond removing te causes - that is, war and sectarian violence. Not likely to happen soon, unfortunately.
Comments
The only solution seems to be to divide the country in three. Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites. That won't eliminate all violence, but it will curb it tremendously. History shows us that people of different ethnicities and religions will not get along overnight. The only short-term solution is separation.
Posted by: PoliticalCritic | June 2, 2006 6:03 AM
ooh, hello!
I can't see how you could divide Iraq without exacerbating the situation. Most of these refugees are coming from places which are ethnically mixed. If you were going to divide Iraq on ethnic lines, you'd have to do something with all the Xs living in Y-majority provinces (where X,Y are Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis). That is, either:
a) help them move to be with people of the same ethnicity
b) protect them from communal attacks
I don't see any plausible way of doing either of those. Especially in places like Kirkuk or Baghdad, which are very ethnically mixed.
But, I guess I've tended to dismiss the 3-state solution out of hand (mainly because most of the experts think it is a really bad plan, and I have too much experience of what happened when we tried it in South Asia). Perhaps I should look at it more seriously...
Posted by: Dan | June 2, 2006 12:30 PM